Pre market Briefing

War Day 39 — US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire — Dow +1,200 pts — WTI -17% to $93 — Hormuz Passage Unconfirmed — Islamabad Talks Friday — FOMC Minutes 2PM ET

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

I mean, if you were watching the trading screens yesterday morning, you were basically watching the world price in an absolute catastrophe.

SPEAKER_00 0:05

Oh, completely. It was uh it was maximum structural panic.

SPEAKER_01 0:09

Right, because it is Wednesday, April 8th, 2026, and just 24 hours ago, the markets were staring down the barrel of an 8 p.m. deadline set by President Trump to target Iranian civilian infrastructure.

SPEAKER_00 0:22

Yeah. And he had warned, and I mean, this is a direct quote. He said, a whole civilization will die tonight.

SPEAKER_01 0:29

Which is terrifying. U.S. strikes had already hit Carg Island, crude oil was just rocketing toward$109 a barrel, and you know, the global economy was bracing for a massive regional war.

SPEAKER_00 0:40

You had millions of market participants, institutional algorithms, all these global supply chains entirely positioned for a literal doomsday scenario in the energy sector.

SPEAKER_01 0:49

But then, just 90 minutes before that 8 p.m. deadline, the script just completely flips.

SPEAKER_00 0:54

It was wild.

SPEAKER_01 0:55

Right. President Trump announces a two-week US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shibaz Sharif. And in the blink of an eye, the global markets completely and violently inverted overnight.

SPEAKER_00 1:08

Yeah, it is the absolute definition of a whiplash event. It really forces you to examine the mechanics of, you know, how fast the modern world actually moves.

SPEAKER_01 1:17

Which is exactly our mission for today's deep dive. So to understand how a single 90-minute window just broke the global markets, we are unpacking a masterful, highly detailed pre-market intelligence briefing.

SPEAKER_00 1:31

And it's a fantastic briefing.

SPEAKER_01 1:33

It really is. It was produced by the Canon Intelligence Desk and authored by their senior market analyst, Eli Livy. The level of detail here is incredible. And uh if you want to reach out to Eli directly about it, you can email him at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 1:47

Yeah, we'll be using his roadmap to trace the shock waves of this geopolitical pivot through, well, basically everything from European natural gas to digital currencies.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

Because days like today are when you really need to separate the flashing headlines from the actual, you know, underlying structural realities.

SPEAKER_00 2:03

Exactly. But um, before we really get into the gears of this market inversion, I do need to pause a conversation for just a second to read an important notice for you. Sure, go ahead. Disclaimer: Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_01 2:42

Thanks for that. Okay, so let's unpack this. I feel like we have to start at the absolute epicenter of the shockwave, right? The historic collapse of crude oil.

SPEAKER_00 2:50

Oh, absolutely. The numbers Eli Levy presents in the Canon briefing are just they're staggering.

SPEAKER_01 2:54

Yeah, we are talking about the biggest single session crude collapse since what, the 2020 COVID lockdown?

SPEAKER_00 3:00

Oh, yeah, exactly. WTI, which you know is the domestic US oil benchmark, plummeted 14 to 17 percent. Wow. Right, we're talking a drop down to the$94 to$96 range. That is a$16 to$17 drop in a single trading session.

SPEAKER_01 3:14

That's insane.

SPEAKER_00 3:14

And Brent Crude, the international benchmark, fell right in lockstep, dropping around$13 to 14%.

SPEAKER_01 3:21

See, the intraday swing is what really gets me. To hit a high of$109 yesterday and then just bottom out at$91 this morning, that's an$18 swing in hours.

SPEAKER_00 3:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 3:31

I kind of think of it like um like slamming the emergency brakes on a speeding freight train.

SPEAKER_00 3:36

Oh, that's a good way to put it.

SPEAKER_01 3:37

Right. Like the brakes engage, the steel wheels lock up, and the train itself might grind to a halt. But the cargo inside, the open contracts, the supply chains, the actual physical barrels of oil on the ocean, that momentum doesn't just vanish. No, it doesn't. The cargo gets violently thrown around inside the cars, just smashing into the walls.

SPEAKER_00 3:56

What's fascinating here is that the market is currently trading entirely on the headline of a ceasefire. But if you actually look at the logistics on the ground, the track ahead of that freight train is still heavily compromised.

SPEAKER_01 4:08

Wait, how is a ceasefire not a resolution? I mean, the bombs stop dropping, right? The shipping lanes open back up.

SPEAKER_00 4:13

Aaron Powell You'd think so, but it's all about the fine print regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which is obviously the world's most critical energy choke point. Iran isn't just opening the geographic gates and walking away.

SPEAKER_01 4:25

So what are they doing?

SPEAKER_00 4:26

Well, their foreign minister explicitly stated that safe passage through the strait will require coordination with Iran's armed forces. Oh wow. Yeah. And President Trump even floated the idea of a joint U.S. Iran venture to essentially charge tolls. So Iran is maintaining absolute gatekeeping authority over the global oil supply.

SPEAKER_01 4:47

Aaron Powell Hold on. So they hold the keys to the choke point, and now they might be charging an entry fee to use it. That doesn't sound like a ceasefire at all. That sounds like, I don't know, an extortion tax on global energy. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 4:58

Precisely. And the analysts that Eli cites in the Canon briefing are highly skeptical that this holds together. Like um Bob McNally over at Rapidan Energy explicitly pointed out that Washington and Tehran are still talking completely past each other regarding what reopening the strait actually means.

SPEAKER_01 5:13

And while the physical oil is just gone.

SPEAKER_00 5:15

Yeah. Yeah. The briefing quotes Francisco Blanche at Bank of America, highlighting that during just five weeks of war, the massive 400 million barrel inventory build we saw in late 2025 was completely wiped out.

SPEAKER_01 5:29

Just gone. And you can't just flip a switch and turn shut-in oil fields back on overnight.

SPEAKER_00 5:34

No, of course not. That takes weeks or even months to spin back up safely, which is why Matt Gertkin from BCA Research is treating this as just a mere strategic timeout.

SPEAKER_01 5:44

So he thinks it's going to flare up again.

SPEAKER_00 5:45

Yeah, he warned in the briefing that fighting is likely to reignite later this year or maybe even later this month.

SPEAKER_01 5:50

Aaron Powell But see, this raises a major question for me. If you're a listener looking at your portfolio, there seems to be a massive disconnect between the paper markets you see on your screen and the physical reality of the ocean.

SPEAKER_00 6:01

Oh, massive.

SPEAKER_01 6:02

Because the Canon briefing notes that physical Dubai crude was trading at an incredible$126 premium just last week. And Lloyd's of London, you know, the massive insurance market, they are still keeping their war risk shipping insurance rates extremely high today.

SPEAKER_00 6:17

Yeah, they are.

SPEAKER_01 6:18

So if the war is supposedly on pause, why are the actuaries pricing insurance like it's an active war zone?

SPEAKER_00 6:25

Because you really have to distinguish between algorithms and actuaries. Paper futures, like the contracts traded on screens, they can react in a millisecond to a breaking news alert. Right. But physical reality does not reset with a press conference. A massive physical premium doesn't just vanish because diplomats agreed to have a meeting. Insurance actuaries at Lloyd's of London deal in the cold, hard probabilities of physical vessels being destroyed.

SPEAKER_01 6:50

Yeah. They can't afford to trade on hope.

SPEAKER_00 6:52

Exactly. Until those actuaries see sustained, verifiable, safe passage of actual commercial tankers, that risk premium stays bolted in place. As Eli Levy puts it, the relief trade is real, but the crisis itself is not over.

SPEAKER_01 7:06

It's the cargo still tumbling around in the train cars. Okay. So oil crashes. But if we trace the cause and effect here, we see a massive divergence. Let's look at natural gas, because there's this fascinating split between how the US and Europe reacted.

SPEAKER_00 7:20

Natural gas is currently telling a tale of two entirely different continents. In the US, Henry Hub futures, the domestic benchmark, were largely insulated. They only dropped about 5%.

SPEAKER_01 7:32

Oh, that's practically nothing compared to oil.

SPEAKER_00 7:34

Right, because the U.S. is producing at a record pace of 118 billion cubic feet per day. So the domestic market was already somewhat shielded from the Middle East chaos. We supply our own needs.

SPEAKER_01 7:48

But Europe is a totally different story.

SPEAKER_00 7:50

Entirely. European natural gas, specifically the Dutch TTF benchmark, completely collapsed 20% at the Amsterdam Open.

SPEAKER_01 7:58

20%.

SPEAKER_00 7:59

Yeah, it was their biggest single session move since the war started. European prices had surged 60% since late February because their entire energy strategy relies heavily on liquefied natural gas or LNG.

SPEAKER_01 8:12

And those LNG tankers flow right through the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_00 8:15

Exactly. When the ceasefire hit, that 20% price drop was Europe breathing a massive collective sigh of relief.

SPEAKER_01 8:22

They're just hoping those LNG tankers can start moving again and keep their heating bills from destroying their economy.

SPEAKER_00 8:27

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 8:27

But here's where it gets really interesting. And honestly, this part of the briefing kind of broke my brain for a second.

SPEAKER_00 8:32

Okay, let's hear it.

SPEAKER_01 8:33

We have a ceasefire. The panic is subsiding. Oil and gas are crashing. So if you're wondering why traditional fear-based safe haven assets like gold and silver are suddenly skyrocketing instead of falling, well, you are not alone.

SPEAKER_00 8:45

It is the ultimate counterintuitive trade. On the surface, you would absolutely think Sun and Global Peace equals much lower gold prices.

SPEAKER_01 8:53

Exactly. Gold surged 3% to$4,850 an ounce. The briefing mentions Bob Habercorn at RJO Futures talking about it testing the trajectory toward$5,000. Yeah. And silver just exploded 7% to$77, with JP Morgan targeting$81. Why are the ultimate fear assets rallying on good news?

SPEAKER_00 9:14

It comes down to two very specific, very powerful economic mechanisms that shifted the exact moment the ceasefire was announced. First, you have to look at the US dollar, specifically the DXY.

SPEAKER_01 9:26

Right. And for those who don't watch currency markets closely, the DXY is an index that measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies.

SPEAKER_00 9:33

Correct. So during the absolute peak of the war fears over the last few weeks, international investors were hoarding US dollars as the ultimate safe haven.

SPEAKER_01 9:42

Which drove the value of the dollar sky high.

SPEAKER_00 9:44

Yes. But when the ceasefire was announced, that war haven demand evaporated and the DXY fell almost 1%. Now, gold is priced in dollars globally. So a weaker US dollar automatically makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers holding other currencies.

SPEAKER_01 10:01

Oh, I see.

SPEAKER_00 10:02

Which directly fuels a surge in purchasing demand.

SPEAKER_01 10:04

Okay, so the dollar drops, foreign buying power increases, and gold pops. That is mechanism one. What's the second driver?

SPEAKER_00 10:12

The second and arguably more powerful mechanism is inflation and the Federal Reserve.

SPEAKER_01 10:16

Always comes back to the Fed.

SPEAKER_00 10:17

Doesn't it?

SPEAKER_01 10:18

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 10:18

When crude oil was rocketing toward$117 a barrel, it threatened to unleash massive inflationary pressure across the globe. It suddenly costs more to transport goods, to run factories, to fly airplanes.

SPEAKER_01 10:30

Yeah, it cascades into everything.

SPEAKER_00 10:32

Exactly. So the market assumed the Federal Reserve would be forced to keep interest rates painfully high deep into 2026 just to fight that oil-driven inflation.

SPEAKER_01 10:40

Because keeping interest rates high is basically the Fed's primary tool to cool down the economy.

SPEAKER_00 10:46

Right. But with oil suddenly collapsing back down to the mid-90 dollars, that looming inflationary impulse fades rapidly. Suddenly, the door to the Federal Reserve actually cutting interest rates later in 2026 swings wide open again.

SPEAKER_01 11:00

And gold absolutely loves a low interest rate environment.

SPEAKER_00 11:04

It really does. Gold doesn't pay a dividend, it doesn't offer a yield. When interest rates drop, the opportunity cost of holding a shiny rock instead of a yield-bearing treasury bond goes down, making gold vastly more attractive to investors.

SPEAKER_01 11:18

That is brilliant. So it's not rallying on the fear of war at all. It's rallying on the sudden expectation of cheaper money.

SPEAKER_00 11:24

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 11:25

And silver gets a double boost here, doesn't it?

SPEAKER_00 11:27

It does. Silver acts as a monetary safe haven, so it traces gold's movements. But it is also a heavily utilized industrial metal. The ceasefire signals that global manufacturing can breathe easier without an energy crisis.

SPEAKER_01 11:40

Which massively boosts the industrial demand side for silver.

SPEAKER_00 11:44

Yeah, it catches a bid from both the monetary angle and the manufacturing angle, which is why we saw that massive 7% explosion in silver today.

SPEAKER_01 11:53

So while silver bridges the gap between money and manufacturing, it's entirely dependent on supply chains that are, frankly, currently broken.

SPEAKER_00 12:01

Very broken.

SPEAKER_01 12:02

And that brings us to the strangest anomaly in this whole market inversion, which is copper. The Canon briefing highlighted a geographical detail here that I found absolutely mesmerizing.

SPEAKER_00 12:14

Ah, the Congo anomaly.

SPEAKER_01 12:16

Yes. Yeah. If global confidence is returning and silver is rallying on manufacturing hopes, you would expect an industrial staple like copper to just rally across the board.

SPEAKER_00 12:25

Right, logically.

SPEAKER_01 12:26

But Goldman Sachs actually revised their 2026 copper forecast downward to twelve thousand six hundred and fifty dollars per ton, despite the risk-gone environment. And the reason why is just a masterclass in global logistics.

SPEAKER_00 12:38

It really highlights how vulnerable the physical supply chain is. I mean, explain the chemical and geographic reality of it for the listener because it's wild.

SPEAKER_01 12:46

Right. So 15% of the world's entire copper mine production comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Yep. But you can't just dig copper out of the ground and throw it on a truck. It's locked inside wall ore. To extract and process that copper, the smelting operations rely heavily on sulfuric acid leaching.

SPEAKER_00 13:03

And to get that, they need massive, steady shipments of sulfur.

SPEAKER_01 13:06

Exactly. And where does that sulfur come from? The Middle East shipped directly through the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_00 13:12

This raises such an important question about systemic hidden risks. We are so conditioned to think of the Strait of Hormuz strictly in terms of crude oil and LNG tankers.

SPEAKER_01 13:22

Yeah, we just picture oil barrels.

SPEAKER_00 13:24

Right. We completely forget about the secondary industrial chemicals like sulfur that are critical inputs for entirely different industries located on entirely different continents.

SPEAKER_01 13:34

Exactly. A military standoff in the Persian Gulf chokes off a chemical shipment, which chemically stalls a physical smelting plant deep in Central Africa, which forces Wall Street banks in New York to downgrade global copper price forecasts. It is wild.

SPEAKER_00 13:50

It's all connected. And Goldman Sachs is openly saying that this specific sulfur supply disruption in the DRC isn't even fully priced into the market's models yet.

SPEAKER_01 13:58

Which is exactly why we don't just trade the superficial headlines. You really have to trace the physical molecules through the global supply chain to understand where the real impacts are going to hit.

SPEAKER_00 14:10

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01 14:10

So let's trace those molecules all the way to the food on your table. What does this geopolitical whiplash mean for global agriculture? Because the briefing notes that major grains like corn, soybeans, and wheat were all selling off heavily.

SPEAKER_00 14:26

Yeah, this is driven by what commodities analysts call the war premium energy linkage. It sounds complex, but it's actually very straightforward. Modern farming is an incredibly energy-intensive industry.

SPEAKER_01 14:38

Sure. I mean, tractors and combine harvesters need a massive amount of diesel fuel.

SPEAKER_00 14:42

Tractors need diesel? Absolutely. But it goes so much deeper than just the fuel in the tank. The crops themselves need fertilizer. The most massive component of that is nitrogen fertilizer, which is produced using the Haberbosch process. That chemical process literally uses natural gas as its primary raw material to create the hydrogen needed for the ammonia. So natural gas isn't just powering the fertilizer factory, it is the actual physical ingredient.

SPEAKER_01 15:08

Oh wow. I never realized that.

SPEAKER_00 15:09

Yeah. So when the price of crude oil and natural gas plummet on ceasefire news, the anticipated input costs for farmers plummet right alongside it.

SPEAKER_01 15:18

That makes perfect sense.

SPEAKER_00 15:19

Right. If the cost of production drops, the future price of the grain drops, the entire war premium built into food prices begins evaporating.

SPEAKER_01 15:28

Aaron Powell But there is a domestic weather component heavily at play here, too, right? Because the source mentions a pretty grim USDA report for U.S. winter wheat that would normally send prices skyrocketing.

SPEAKER_00 15:40

Trevor Burrus Yes. The USDA just reported that only 35% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent.

SPEAKER_01 15:45

That's terrible.

SPEAKER_00 15:46

That is a terrible figure, the lowest we've seen since 2023. In a vacuum, a crop report that bad would cause a massive price spike. Right. But meteorologists are forecasting highly favorable rainfall for the U.S. plans over the next 10 days. That beneficial rain is offsetting the grim historical report. And when you combine that weather optimism with the collapsing energy costs, it creates immense downward pressure on agricultural prices.

SPEAKER_01 16:12

It's incredible how interlinked the weather, the chemical processes, and the geopolitics truly are.

SPEAKER_00 16:18

It really is.

SPEAKER_01 16:19

Okay, so we've covered the physical world, the oil, the metals, the grains, but we have to talk about the digital world. Because the return of global confidence triggered an absolute explosion in crypto futures. Bitcoin surged 5% past$72,000, and Ethereum jumped above$2,200.

SPEAKER_00 16:37

What's fascinating here is the sheer mechanical force behind that spike. This wasn't just, you know, organic investors deciding it was a nice day to buy crypto. This was a violent short squeeze.

SPEAKER_01 16:47

For those who might not be deep into margin trading, can you just break down the actual mechanics of a short squeeze?

SPEAKER_00 16:53

When the war rhetoric was at its peak and the crypto fear and greed index was sitting at a miserable 13, which indicates extreme fear, a lot of aggressive traders took out short positions.

SPEAKER_01 17:04

Betting against it.

SPEAKER_00 17:05

Right. That means they borrowed Bitcoin from a broker and sold it immediately, betting that the geopolitical panic would cause the price to keep crashing so they could buy it back cheaper later. And they were heavily leveraged, using borrowed money to amplify their bets.

SPEAKER_01 17:19

I always think of a short squeeze like a crowded theater where someone yells, Fire. But in this case, the fire is the rising price of the asset. And the only exit door requires you to actually buy Bitcoin to leave.

SPEAKER_00 17:30

That is a brilliant analogy. Yeah. When the ceasefire is announced, Bitcoin's price naturally starts ticking upward. Suddenly, those short sellers are losing money fast.

SPEAKER_01 17:40

Panicking.

SPEAKER_00 17:41

Exactly. As the price hits certain technical thresholds, their brokers issue margin calls. The brokers forcefully liquidate the positions, forcing the short sellers to buy Bitcoin at market price to cover their massive losses. And as they scramble for the exit door, their forced buying pushes the price up even higher, which triggers more short sellers to be liquidated, forcing them to panic by. It just becomes this cascading loop of forced purchasing.

SPEAKER_01 18:08

And the Canon briefing put hard numbers to this forced panic. Nearly six hundred million dollars in leverage positions were liquidated overnight, and four hundred million dollars of that was specifically from short sellers just getting completely wiped out.

SPEAKER_00 18:20

It acts like pure rocket fuel for an assets price chart.

SPEAKER_01 18:23

Though it is definitely worth noting, as Eli points out in the text, even with this massive short squeeze rally to$72,000, Bitcoin is still forty-three percent off its all-time high of over$126,000 from back in October of 2025.

SPEAKER_00 18:38

It's got a long way to go to recover that.

SPEAKER_01 18:40

Still, that fear and greed index is resetting violently today. Risk on behavior is unequivocally back on the menu.

SPEAKER_00 18:47

For the time being at least.

SPEAKER_01 18:48

Which brings us to the most vital part of this deep dive. So what does this all mean for you as you watch the markets today?

SPEAKER_00 18:54

Well, if we distill Eli Levy's briefing down to its core actionable truth, it's this the ceasefire headline is real. The relief trade, the crashing oil and gas, the soaring stocks and crypto, that is real. But the fundamental geopolitical resolution is not real. We are in a highly volatile holding pattern.

SPEAKER_01 19:12

So if we're in a holding pattern, what should we be watching? Give us the checklist.

SPEAKER_00 19:16

There is a critical 72-hour checklist you need to monitor. Number one. Friday's diplomatic talks in Islamabad. This is where Iran's 10-point proposal gets tested in an actual room, not just in statements. Are they truly willing to compromise, or is it merely diplomatic theater to buy time?

SPEAKER_01 19:33

Aaron Powell Okay, so if the diplomats are talking on Friday, that's step one. But words on paper don't ensure safe passage. We need physical proof, right? Like someone has to be the guinea pig to sail a vessel through the Strait of Romus.

SPEAKER_00 19:46

Precisely, which is number two on the checklist. The physical proof of concept. You need to watch for the very first verified commercial tanker to successfully transit the strait under this new proposed Iranian military coordination. Until a physical ship actually moves through safely and without harassment, it's all just talk.

SPEAKER_01 20:03

Makes sense. And what's the third thing to watch?

SPEAKER_00 20:05

The upcoming EIA crude inventory report later this week. This will provide the first hard statistical data under the new ceasefire regime. It will tell us whether the global oil supply is actually moving and rebuilding, or if that massive 400 million barrel deficit is just sitting there completely static, waiting for the shooting to start again.

SPEAKER_01 20:25

That is an incredibly clear roadmap for the days ahead. I have to give a massive shout out again to the incredible insights provided by Eli Levy and the Canon Trading Company.

SPEAKER_00 20:35

Oh, absolutely.

SPEAKER_01 20:35

Aaron Powell The level of detail and synthesis in this briefing is just phenomenal. Again, you can visit Canon Trading.com to see more of their work. They are really demonstrating how vital it is to have top-tier intelligence when the markets invert violently like this.

SPEAKER_00 20:49

Aaron Powell It is indispensable analysis. And you know, if I can leave you with one final provocative thought to ponder as you watch the markets unfold today.

SPEAKER_01 20:58

Yeah, let's hear it.

SPEAKER_00 20:58

Consider the terrifying speed of what we just discussed. If a single truth social post and a Pakistani diplomat can wipe out$400 million of crypto shorts, crash the global oil market by 17%, and alter the trajectory of the Federal Reserve all within a 90-minute window, it really forces us to ask a difficult question. Which is Are algorithmic trading systems reacting to geopolitics far too fast for human regulators to ever catch up? If World War III can be priced in and then completely priced out, in the time it takes you to watch a movie, market stability, as we historically know it might be a thing of the past.

SPEAKER_01 21:36

Aaron Powell That is a staggering thought. I mean, the algorithms aren't just reacting to the news, they are essentially creating a parallel reality that moves way faster than the physical world can keep up with.

SPEAKER_00 21:46

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 21:46

We'll definitely be watching to see if the physical cargo ever catches up to the digital train.

SPEAKER_00 21:50

And we will be right here to analyze it when it does. But before we officially wrap up today's deep dive, I must leave you with this final required notice disclaimer trading futures, options on future. And retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.