SPEAKER_01 0:00

Welcome to today's deep dive. We are uh jumping right into a really concise look at the April 21, 2026 pre-market briefing from Canon Trading Company, which was prepared by Eli Levy.

SPEAKER_00 0:12

Yeah. And if there is one overriding theme today, I mean, it's dictating literally every asset class. It's what we are calling the diplomacy dial surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

SPEAKER_01 0:22

Right. That dial is just turning everything today. Uh, starting with energy, we're seeing this massive reversal in crude.

SPEAKER_00 0:29

It's pretty wild. I mean, Brent actually pulled back to$94.94, and WTI is down to$88.50.

SPEAKER_01 0:36

Wait, let me push back on that. How are prices dropping when, you know, Iran just shut the Strait of Hormuz and a cargo vessel was seized? By all logic, oil should be skyrocketing.

SPEAKER_00 0:46

Because the market is entirely focused on Vice President Vance's diplomatic trip to Pakistan, that is completely offsetting the supply disruption fears. So the Hegline risk is shifting aggressively toward de-escalation.

SPEAKER_01 0:57

Oh, okay. So they are pricing in the peace talks, not the physical ships.

SPEAKER_00 1:01

Exactly. And uh briefly on natural gas, that's dropping down to around$2.66, but that's just due to a persistent 59 BCF storage surplus.

SPEAKER_01 1:09

Got it. Just physical reality weighing that one down. Uh before we explore how this energy shock is flipping the script on metals, let me get this required note in. Disclaimer: Trading futures, options on futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_00 1:47

So looking at metals, normally a geopolitical shock like this triggers a massive safe haven run, right? But this specific energy shock is causing a broken crisis bid.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

Yeah, I noticed that gold is just consolidating near$4,852. Why isn't this Middle East conflict triggering a massive gold rush?

SPEAKER_00 2:04

Because the conflict is highly inflationary. To fight that, the Fed has to stay hawkish. And that expectation of high interest rates counteracts gold's usual crisis bid.

SPEAKER_01 2:13

Oh wow. So they basically cancel each other out, which explains why copper is acting completely differently, hitting six-week highs near six dollars a pound.

SPEAKER_00 2:21

Right, because copper is reacting to revived growth optimism and you know that massive long-term AI demand.

SPEAKER_01 2:28

Which brings us to agriculture and softs. Because these Middle East tensions aren't just an energy and metals story.

SPEAKER_00 2:33

Not at all. They're rippling directly into the global food supply via supply chain costs. I mean, think about fertilizer.

SPEAKER_01 2:40

Right, because high energy means expensive fertilizer, which the briefing points out is actually causing farmers to shift their acreage from corn over to soybeans to save money.

SPEAKER_00 2:50

Exactly. And on top of that, we're seeing winter wheat quality degradation. Only 34% is rated good to excellent right now.

SPEAKER_01 2:58

That is really low. And quickly, what about the softs and livestock data?

SPEAKER_00 3:02

Well, we've got record Brazil coffee surplus forecasts dropping cocoa grinding data, and live cattle on feed inventory is tracking below trade estimates.

SPEAKER_01 3:10

So ripples everywhere, which all funnels into the currencies. Every geopolitical shift we've discussed is reflecting straight into the U.S. dollar.

SPEAKER_00 3:18

Yeah, the DXY is sitting at multi-week lows right now, around 97.84.

SPEAKER_01 3:23

Aaron Ross Powell, so the dollar is essentially just tracking that diplomacy dial we started with.

SPEAKER_00 3:26

Purely tracking it. It's selling off as those ceasefire hopes rise.

SPEAKER_01 3:30

Aaron Powell Well, that wraps up the core of today's briefing. While fundamentals matter, headline risk is clearly in the driver's seat today.

SPEAKER_00 3:37

It really is. It's all about the diplomacy headlines.

SPEAKER_01 3:40

Which leaves you with this final thought to mull over. If diplomacy fully succeeds, how aggressively will those crisis premiums unwind across all these vastly different asset classes? Disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.