SPEAKER_00 0:00

Imagine uh trying to trade oil when the platforms literally can't even agree on what the price is.

SPEAKER_01 0:05

It is absolute chaos out there today.

SPEAKER_00 0:07

It really is. Welcome to today's deep dive into the May 22nd, 2026 Pre-market futures briefing. This comes to us from Canon Trading Company and uh author Eli Levy. You can reach him via email at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_01 0:22

Right, lots to cover today.

SPEAKER_00 0:24

Yeah, but before we jump into the numbers, I do need to read this required disclosure for you. Disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_01 0:55

All right, so our mission today is really to help you navigate this jumpy pre-holiday market, because we've got, you know, massive geopolitical whipsaws happening.

SPEAKER_00 1:04

Along with a monumental transition over at the Fed. Exactly. Because Kevin Walsh is officially succeeding Jerome Powell today as Fed chair. And I mean, talk about jumping into the driver's seat of a speeding race car.

SPEAKER_01 1:17

Oh, yeah. It is a high-stakes handover.

SPEAKER_00 1:20

Right. Because he's inheriting a market sitting at record highs. Like we're talking a Dow hitting 50,286. Which is huge. But at the same time, he's battling a really hot CPI, like 3.8% consumer inflation.

SPEAKER_01 1:34

Yeah, and that hot consumer inflation is actually firming up the US dollar right now.

SPEAKER_00 1:39

Which is usually a problem, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:41

Well, yeah, a strong dollar usually acts as a major headwind for commodities. It just makes them more expensive for foreign buyers. Got it. But uh what's fascinating is the rotation we are seeing in the metals market today, because gold is essentially flat.

SPEAKER_00 1:55

Just totally stalled up.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

Right. But silver has surged over 2%.

SPEAKER_00 1:59

Wait, really? Over two percent?

SPEAKER_01 2:01

Yeah, signaling that traders are still, you know, willing to take on risk despite that strong dollar.

SPEAKER_00 2:07

Oh wow. So they aren't just hiding in safe haven assets.

SPEAKER_01 2:10

Exactly. Money is rotating within the metals complex, not fleeing it entirely.

SPEAKER_00 2:15

Aaron Powell And that rotation makes even more sense when you look at the absolute chaos on the energy board. I mean, the US-Iran negotiations are just fluctuating daily.

SPEAKER_01 2:24

Aaron Powell Yeah, especially with Iran keeping near weapons grade uranium in country. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 2:28

Right. And it is causing crude oil to whipsaw so violently. Different data venues can't even agree on the exact WTI price right now.

SPEAKER_01 2:36

Aaron Ross Powell The trading screens are completely fractured.

SPEAKER_00 2:39

Aaron Powell Which, wait, let me push back on that. How can traders even operate when basic price facts are just disputed across different desks?

SPEAKER_01 2:46

Aaron Powell Well, uh it just really comes down to structural reality. The algos are just panic reading headlines in milliseconds, but beneath that stress, the physical fundamentals are incredibly stark.

SPEAKER_00 2:57

Because supply is still super tight.

SPEAKER_01 2:58

Aaron Powell Right. I mean, the U.S. just pulled a record 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

SPEAKER_00 3:03

Aaron Powell Wait, 10 million? If the pricing data is so broken, how do we know the physical supply data isn't equally distorted?

SPEAKER_01 3:10

That is a fair question, but the SPR draw is a hard physical metric. It's reported by the Department of Energy, unlike the you know, millisecond spot price. So even with a historic emergency release, the physical market is starting for supply.

SPEAKER_00 3:24

And that physical supply shortage cascades into everything else, doesn't it?

SPEAKER_01 3:28

Oh, totally. It raises fertilizer costs for farmers, which quietly props up the floor prices for grains.

SPEAKER_00 3:35

Even with the recent disappointment regarding China. Because Beijing just failed to confirm that highly anticipated $17 billion US agricultural purchase.

SPEAKER_01 3:46

Yeah. That uncertainty is why grains slipped initially. But the underlying inflation from energy and fertilizer costs keeps those agricultural markets from just collapsing. Farmers literally can't afford to sell below the cost of their inputs.

SPEAKER_00 3:59

So as you look at the board today, the core takeaway is that everything from metals to grains is basically tethered to energy.

SPEAKER_01 4:05

Exactly.

SPEAKER_00 4:06

And energy is just reacting to binary, unpredictable geopolitical headlines.

SPEAKER_01 4:10

Which leaves us with a really critical question to chew on heading into the long weekend.

SPEAKER_00 4:14

Oh, what's that?

SPEAKER_01 4:15

If energy drives everything and we are already tapping record emergency reserves just to maintain the current balance, how violently will these markets instantly reprice if a surprise headline drops regarding the Strait of Hormuz during thin Memorial Day liquidity?

SPEAKER_00 4:29

Man, that is a sobering thought to take into the holiday. We will leave you with that, but first one final reminder disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.