Brent Crude is uh flirting with $100 a barrel right now. But institutional desks, you know, like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, they are still betting it's gonna crash back down to 60 bucks by December. Yeah, that is a massive $40 gap. It really is. And that is exactly what we are unpacking today. Welcome to our deep dive into the June 3, 2026 futures pre-market briefing. This one comes from Eli Levy at Canon Training Company. You can reach him at Eli at CanonTrading.com. Right. And our mission today for you listening is to really parse how these intense Middle East geopolitics are currently um overpowering normal market fundamentals. I mean, across energy, rates, and metals. Aaron Powell Okay, let's unpack this energy situation first. I mean, the U.S. struck Kusham Island and Iran mined segments of the Strait of Hormuz. So spot prices spiked to $98.06. Aaron Powell Yeah, a huge, huge jump. Right. But with those institutional forecasts holding at 60 bucks, it feels like, well, it's like we are paying extreme surge pricing on an Uber just because the sky looks dark, you know, regardless of whether it actually rains or not. Aaron Powell That surge pricing is exactly it. That is the exact mechanism of a geopolitical premium. I mean, the physical flow of oil hasn't actually stopped to a degree that justifies a near hundred dollar valuation based just on supply and demand. Aaron Powell Wait, so it's not supply and demand at all? Aaron Powell Not purely, no. What the market is pricing in is the probability of a catastrophic supply disruption. If that disruption doesn't materialize, well, the premium just evaporates, which is exactly why the big desks are holding those $60 targets. Aaron Powell Okay, that makes sense. Before we dig into how this chaos impacts the Fed and the broader macro picture, I need to read a quick required notice. Disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Always important to keep in mind, definitely. For sure. So jumping back in, we have this massive geopolitical fear premium driving up oil, which obviously threatens to reignite inflation, right? But looking at the briefing, the bond market is doing something really unusual. Yeah, it is completely out of sync. Exactly. Treasury yields and the dollar are slipping at the exact same time. If inflation fears are rising, I mean, shouldn't yields be spiking? Normally, yeah. You would expect yields and the dollar to track together based on interest rate differentials. But uh the panic buying of treasuries is just so aggressive right now. Oh, so people are just looking for a safe haven. Exactly. It is entirely overwhelming normal foreign exchange dynamics. Capital is just fleeing into US debt as a pure risk-off sanctuary because the Iran conflict. Wow. And that massive influx of buying pressure just forces yields down, you know, completely ignoring the inflationary threat of $100 oil. I mean, it is ignoring domestic data too. Look at the Joltz report from the brief. We are seeing 7.6 million job openings, but actual hires are dropping. Right, which is a classic stagflationary signal. Employers are, you know, keeping positions open on paper, but they won't actually close the deal and hire anyone. Aaron Powell Right. The labor market is essentially seizing up. Aaron Powell Exactly. And when you pair that frozen labor data with extreme geopolitical risk, well, the Fed's hands are effectively tied. The market is pricing in a 99% probability that they just hold rates steady at their June 17 meeting. Aaron Powell Because hiking to fight oil inflation would crush that fragile labor market, but cutting would just signal panic, right? Aaron Powell Exactly. They're trapped. Trevor Burrus, which naturally drives capital directly into hard assets. I mean, gold closing at $4,529 makes perfect sense in a risk-off environment where central banks are hoarding and the dollar is softening. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Right. Gold is acting exactly how you would expect it to. Aaron Powell But copper is what really caught my eye in Levy's brief. It's trading over $6.50. Copper is supposed to be the ultimate barometer for global economic growth. Aaron Powell Yeah. Dr. Copper. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Right. So if the Fed is trapped and the global macro environment is so shaky, why on earth is copper surging? Aaron Powell Well, because it is entirely detaching from synchronized global demand. At 650, copper is really pricing in U.S. tariff anxiety and domestic supply tightness. Exactly. Tariffs act as this physical and financial barrier, restricting the flow of metal into the U.S., even if global supplies are perfectly adequate. Interesting. Yeah. Domestic buyers are getting squeezed. They are scrambling for local inventory, which creates this artificial price spike that is, frankly, utterly divorced from global economic health. Which leaves you, as the listener, to ponder a rather critical question here. If copper isn't tracking growth and bonds aren't tracking inflation, are we entering an era where geopolitical fear just permanently overrides traditional economic data? Aaron Powell It's a genuinely great question. Traditional models rely on a baseline of geopolitical stability. When that baseline fractures, I mean, the old data sets just become noise. Absolutely wild to think about. It really is. Just make sure to keep a close eye on the upcoming June 7th OPEC meeting and that Fed meeting on June 17th to see how policymakers try to navigate this whole trap. Definitely. Well, huge thanks again to Eli Levy and Canon Trading Company for the incredible insights in today's briefing. Again, you can reach Eli directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com. Yeah, really fantastic research. And to wrap up, here is our closing notice. Disclaimer Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Fast performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.