SPEAKER_01 0:00

Welcome to today's deep dive. Uh, we are looking at a wild binary event market session for Wednesday, June 10th, 2026. And you know, a roadmap for decoding all this comes straight from Eli Levy's pre-market briefing at Canon Trading Company. You can actually reach the author directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 0:18

Yeah, and it's I mean, it is a crucial briefing today because what we are seeing is the market just aggressively repricing risk across the board.

SPEAKER_01 0:26

Absolutely. But uh before we get into the weeds of that, I need to share this really quick. Disclaimer Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_00 0:57

Right. And keeping risk in mind is definitely key today, especially with what happened overnight. We saw a sudden Iran-Israel halt at tax agreement, and that just completely wiped out the geopolitical premium.

SPEAKER_01 1:09

It was like a pressure valve just suddenly releasing. Right. I mean the speed was staggering.

SPEAKER_00 1:13

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:13

WTI crude touched $95 during that Strait of Hormuz panic, and then it just instantly gapped down to $88.

SPEAKER_00 1:20

Aaron Powell, Jr. Exactly. And gold lost its safe haven bid entirely too. It fell right into that $4,199 to $4,211 range, which is, well, it's the lowest we've seen since March.

SPEAKER_01 1:31

Wow, since March. So with that geopolitical panic totally gone, I mean, our markets just blindly ignoring structural supply realities because we just had an 8 million barrel commercial crude draw?

SPEAKER_00 1:43

Aaron Powell Well, it's not blind ignorance. Um, it's really just a difference in time horizons. You see, short-term headline scraping bots, they just instantly dump contracts on keyword triggers like halt attacks.

SPEAKER_01 1:54

Oh, so they don't even care about the actual physical supply of oil in the tanks.

SPEAKER_00 1:57

Aaron Powell Not at all. Algorithmic trading dictates the next five seconds, but an eight million barrel draw, well, that's a five month physical problem. The immediate threat of a massive price spike is just gone. Aaron Powell Okay.

SPEAKER_01 2:08

So the geopolitical pressure valve is released, which means the market's entire attention violently snaps back to domestic inflation, right?

SPEAKER_00 2:15

Yes, exactly. Which brings us to the 8 30 AM Eastern May CPI print today. It is the ultimate swing factor.

SPEAKER_01 2:22

Aaron Powell Because we came into the week with that hot May payrolls report. What was it? Um 172,000 jobs added.

SPEAKER_00 2:29

Yeah, 172,000, and that functionally parks the Fed on hold. Right now, the market is pricing a 96 to 99% probability of no change at the June meeting.

SPEAKER_01 2:38

But here is what really stands out to me. The market is fully pricing a 25 basis point Fed hike by December. And the 10-year treasury is sitting up near 4.57%.

SPEAKER_00 2:48

Which is huge. The bond market is currently pricing in very persistent inflation.

SPEAKER_01 2:52

Right. So if we get a surprisingly soft CPI print today, does that just instantly kill the December hike narrative and drag that 10-year yield back down to, say, 4.45?

SPEAKER_00 3:01

I mean, it wouldn't erase the narrative entirely, but it definitely shifts the trajectory. If consumer prices are cooling, that 4.57% yield starts looking way too defensive.

SPEAKER_01 3:12

Aaron Powell And that matters globally because these high US yields are acting like a financial black hole. They're just sucking investment capital out of other economies.

SPEAKER_00 3:20

Yeah, which props up the dollar and puts global central banks in a really terrible corner. I mean, the European central bank is actually expected to deliver its first rate hike tomorrow.

SPEAKER_01 3:28

Wait, tomorrow. And Euro area inflation just hit 3.2%, so they kind of have to act, right?

SPEAKER_00 3:33

They do. And Japan is feeling that gravitational pull even harder right now.

SPEAKER_01 3:37

Yeah. USD to JPY is sitting near 160.15. That is right in the danger zone where Japanese officials have repeatedly warned they're ready to intervene.

SPEAKER_00 3:47

Exactly. When US yields stay this elevated, foreign central banks are basically forced to either burn their reserves to prop up their currency or hike their own rates and risk economic weakness.

SPEAKER_01 3:59

So today is really this massive tug of war between evaporated geopolitical fear on one side and then mounting domestic inflation anxiety on the other.

SPEAKER_00 4:08

That's the perfect way to put it. The pivot from international conflict to domestic data just highlights how incredibly fragile this current market equilibrium really is.

SPEAKER_01 4:18

Yeah, it really does. Which leaves us with a final thought for you to ponder. As the market instantly unwinds these safe haven trades, are investors becoming way too complacent, treating massive geopolitical conflicts as just temporary glitches rather than structural long-term threats to the global economy?

SPEAKER_00 4:38

It's a great question and definitely something to watch.

SPEAKER_01 4:40

Definitely. Disclaimer: Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.