SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the deep dive. We are jumping right into the June 12, 2026 futures pre-market briefing today.

SPEAKER_01 0:06

Yeah, authored by Eli Levy of Canon Trading Company.

SPEAKER_00 0:09

Right, and you can actually reach him directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com. So our mission today is to break down three completely distinct forces driving the tape right now.

SPEAKER_01 0:17

Oh, definitely. We've got a shockingly hot PPI inflation print, some huge geopolitical shifts hitting oil, and a historic USDA Greens report.

SPEAKER_00 0:27

Before we untack all that, uh, I need to read this mandatory disclaimer for you. Disclaimer, trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange, foreign currency transactions, and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_01 0:59

Okay, so let's start with that geopolitical pivot because I mean the market reaction there has been really violent.

SPEAKER_00 1:04

Yeah, President Trump signaling an Iran deal might be close.

SPEAKER_01 1:07

Exactly. That was the catalyst. Safe haven assets just bled out almost instantly. Gold opened at its lowest point since November 2025.

SPEAKER_00 1:15

Wow. And oil took a hit too, right?

SPEAKER_01 1:17

A massive hit. WTI crude tumbled all the way down to $87.71.

SPEAKER_00 1:22

I mean, I have to push back a little on this rapid sell-off, though.

SPEAKER_01 1:25

How so?

SPEAKER_00 1:26

Well, isn't that like declaring victory in a marathon at mile 20? I mean, CNEP and Com literally just fired missiles at a non-compliant vessel in the Gulf of Oman.

SPEAKER_01 1:36

Right.

SPEAKER_00 1:37

So the underlying danger hasn't actually gone away.

SPEAKER_01 1:39

No, it hasn't. And that's exactly what we call two-way risk. If a deal actually happens, it kills that premium entirely.

SPEAKER_00 1:45

But if talks break down.

SPEAKER_01 1:46

Then that premium violently reignites. But crucially, you have to connect this dropping energy premium to the inflation data. We just saw a really hot PPI print.

SPEAKER_00 1:56

Yeah, headline wholesale inflation at 6.0% year over year, which is wild.

SPEAKER_01 2:01

Right. Normally that would um terrify the Fed. But look at what the market is actually pricing in.

SPEAKER_00 2:07

A 96% chance they hold rates steady. Why aren't they panicking over 6%?

SPEAKER_01 2:11

Because of the oil drop. The inflation impulse the Fed fears most is driven by energy. With oil falling, that impulse is likely peaking.

SPEAKER_00 2:19

Oh, so the macro data is pointing toward a pause. Which means we really need to pivot from geopolitical speculation to hard physical supply shortages.

SPEAKER_01 2:30

Exactly. Which brings us to the USDA WASTI report.

SPEAKER_00 2:33

Right. What is the big takeaway there?

SPEAKER_01 2:35

Well, corn looks really heavy right now. They've got stocks at a seven-year high.

SPEAKER_00 2:39

Okay, but wheat is the real shocker.

SPEAKER_01 2:41

Unbelievable shocker, yeah. The USCA just projected the smallest winter wheat crop since 1965.

SPEAKER_00 2:46

Wait, really? Like 1965?

SPEAKER_01 2:48

Yeah, down almost 27% from last year.

SPEAKER_00 2:51

I mean, feeding a 2026 global population with 1965 production levels, that is a terrifying math equation.

SPEAKER_01 2:58

It ends in a severe structural deficit, absolutely. Wheat is incredibly tight right now.

SPEAKER_00 3:02

And while we're on the topic of massive wildcards, we have to look at the FX market.

SPEAKER_01 3:06

Oh, the yen.

SPEAKER_00 3:07

Yes. The Japanese yen is sitting at multi-decade weakness. We are talking 160.2 against the US dollar.

SPEAKER_01 3:14

And the timing on that is just crazy.

SPEAKER_00 3:17

Right, because Bank of Japan, Governor Uida, was just hospitalized, right ahead of a crucial rate hike meeting.

SPEAKER_01 3:23

It throws everything into limbo. If they can't hike rates, the yen stays incredibly weak.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

So if you step back and look at your portfolio today, the market is desperately caught between this hopeful headline diplomacy and very real underlying supply frictions.

SPEAKER_01 3:39

It is a very delicate balancing act right now.

SPEAKER_00 3:41

Which leaves you with this provocative thought to chew on.

SPEAKER_01 3:43

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 3:44

If these global conflicts actually do resolve and those massive geopolitical premiums vanish from the tape, will the market finally have to face the underlying fragility of global industrial demand?

SPEAKER_01 3:55

That is the multi-billion dollar question we need to be asking.

SPEAKER_00 3:58

All right, wrapping things up, here's our final disclaimer disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.