SPEAKER_01 0:00

Imagine waking up and uh just seeing ComX Copper posting its biggest single-day gain since like 1968. I mean, that is the exact reality traders faced this morning.

SPEAKER_00 0:10

Oh, yeah, it is a wild morning.

SPEAKER_01 0:12

Welcome to today's deep dive into the July 8, 2026 pre-market futures briefing from Canon Trading Company. It's authored by Eli Levy. And you can actually reach him directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 0:24

Right. And our mission today is really to unpack this incredibly volatile tape. We've got sudden geopolitical shocks and massive new tariffs just violently colliding today.

SPEAKER_01 0:34

And all this is happening right before a critical Federal Reserve release, which is just crazy timing.

SPEAKER_00 0:39

It is a fascinating setup, honestly. We have these simultaneous structural disruptions to global supply chains hitting the wire just hours before we get a look at the FOMC's internal debate on inflation.

SPEAKER_01 0:50

Exactly. But uh before we dig into exactly how these shocks are rewiring the board, I need to drop in a quick required note. Disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Right, and that was immediately followed by U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, right? Plus a tanker got hit.

SPEAKER_00 1:40

Exactly, which is why crude oil instantly jumped like five to six percent.

SPEAKER_01 1:43

Wow. And right on top of that massive energy squeeze, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, plus a really massive 50% Section 232 tariff on copper.

SPEAKER_00 1:54

Yeah. And that 50% number is exactly what triggered that historic ComX leap. Jumping from $4.98 to $5.65 a pound in just a single session is totally unheard of.

SPEAKER_01 2:05

It really is. Why did the market react so violently, though?

SPEAKER_00 2:08

Aaron Powell Well, the reason Section 232 tariffs cause such an immediate market reaction is that they're enacted under the guise of national security. So they go into effect fast and completely bypass standard, you know, drawn-out trade negotiations.

SPEAKER_01 2:23

So if you were holding a short position on Front Month ComX Copper, just modeling for normal seasonal inventory builds, you're toast.

SPEAKER_00 2:30

Oh, absolutely. This bypass totally broke risk algorithms across the board. The supply side just got artificially choked off overnight.

SPEAKER_01 2:37

It's literally like stepping on the gas and pulling the handbrake at the exact same time. Geopolitics restricts the energy supply, which rises up transport costs, while these new tariffs simultaneously restrict core industrial materials. So the whole manufacturing supply chain basically seizes up.

SPEAKER_00 2:51

Which means these sudden raw material spikes aren't just isolated to the commodities pit. They bleed directly into the broader market by locking in higher production costs immediately.

SPEAKER_01 3:01

Aaron Powell And that forces immediate price pass through inflation, right? When oil and copper spike this hard, the market instantly prices in higher costs for manufacturing and shipping. Well, everything.

SPEAKER_00 3:12

Exactly. Which brings us directly to the friction point of the day, which is the 2.00 PM FOMC minutes.

SPEAKER_01 3:19

Aaron Powell But aren't they totally trapped right now? I mean the the FOMC is reportedly split right down the middle nine to nine on whether another rate hike is needed in 2026.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

Completely trapped. And the 10-year treasury yield is already at a two-week high of 4.50% just because of these inflation fears alone.

SPEAKER_01 3:36

Aaron Powell So if the Fed sounds dubbish to save the market, the dollar drops. But if they sound hawkish to fight these new commodity spikes, they risk crashing equities entirely.

SPEAKER_00 3:46

They are completely boxed in. A nine to nine split is basically paralysis. It means there is no clear consensus on the board about the trajectory of the economy.

SPEAKER_01 3:53

Which makes markets nervous.

SPEAKER_00 3:55

Highly nervous. When the market knows the Fed is divided, trading desks freeze up because they can't confidently project the central bank's next move. You can see that anxiety playing out in the DXY, you know, the US dollar index right now. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_01 4:08

Right. Because if the wording in those minutes leans even slightly dovish, it puts downward pressure on short-term interest rates, the front end of the yield curve.

SPEAKER_00 4:18

Yeah, which immediately weakens the dollar. But conversely, if they lean hawkish, the dollar index snaps right back, putting further pressure on those very commodities that just spiked.

SPEAKER_01 4:28

So every single word in today's release is going to be scrutinized for a tie-breaking signal.

SPEAKER_00 4:34

Every single syllable. Today's tape is essentially a high wire act where industrial metals, the dollar, and interest rates are all aggressively trading off each other in real time.

SPEAKER_01 4:43

It really is. And just as a quick reminder to you listening, this breakdown comes from Eli Levy at Canon Trading Company. For more of this analysis, you can reach him directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 4:54

Definitely worth checking out his insights on days like today.

SPEAKER_01 4:56

For sure. But uh before we wrap up, think about this larger trend for a second. With central banks currently buying 60 tons of gold every single month, and global LNG supply shifting heavily to U.S. producers by 2030, are we witnessing a fundamental rewiring of global commodity reliance?

SPEAKER_00 5:14

Ooh, that is a big question.

SPEAKER_01 5:16

Right, like a structural shift that might actually dictate market direction far more in the long run than whatever a divided Fed says at 2.0 DRPM today. Just something for you to chew on.

SPEAKER_00 5:27

Definitely. And finally, disclaimer, trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.