SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to today's deep dive. We are unpacking the pre-market briefing for July 9th, 2026, authored by Eli Levy over at Canon Trading Company. The mission today is figuring out how two massive catalysts, right? A collapsing U.S. Iran interim deal and a surprisingly hawkish Fed are just rippling through every single asset class.

SPEAKER_01 0:20

Aaron Powell Yeah. It is uh it's a lot to process this morning.

SPEAKER_00 0:23

Aaron Powell It really is. I mean, looking at the market right now is like steering a ship with a completely broken compass. We've got the Dow shedding like 576 points, but the Nasdaq is actually closing in the green. How are we seeing such a split tape?

SPEAKER_01 0:35

Aaron Powell Well, the brake pedal in your analogy is really the Fed, specifically the Warsh Fed. Their June minutes just dropped and they are, I mean, aggressively hawkish.

SPEAKER_00 0:45

Really hawkish, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 0:46

Exactly. You've got nine out of 18 members projecting a rate hike in 2026. And you know, it makes sense when you see their median inflation projection just jumped up to 3.8 percent.

SPEAKER_00 0:55

Aaron Ross Powell Right, which pushed the 10-year treasury yield up to what, 4.56 percent?

SPEAKER_01 0:59

Mm-hmm. Yeah, 4.56. So traditional industrials are getting absolutely crushed by those borrowing costs. But megacaptech, um, they're acting like a paradoxical safe haven.

SPEAKER_00 1:09

Aaron Powell Oh, because of their massive cash reserve.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

Aaron Powell Precisely. They don't rely on cheap debt anymore, and AI catalysts are, you know, overriding the rate pressure. Investors are just hiding out in tech balance sheets.

SPEAKER_00 1:19

Aaron Powell That makes total sense. And since we're diving into some pretty volatile waters, um, I need to remind everyone that trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_01 1:52

Right.

SPEAKER_00 1:52

Okay, so that was the macro brake pedal. Let's talk about the gas. We have a major escalation in the Middle East. President Trump declared the interim Iran ceasefire over, and there are confirmed strikes on over 80 targets.

SPEAKER_01 2:04

Yeah, and we are, of course, just looking at this strictly as market catalysts.

SPEAKER_00 2:09

Exactly. Impartially looking at the tape. And energy is the immediate flashpoint, right? Yeah. Brent crude spiked up to $78.02.

SPEAKER_01 2:17

The physical logistics driving that are severe. Because of recent shipping attacks, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to basically a third of its normal volume. Well a third. Yeah, it is not speculative at all. It's a massive, immediate bottleneck. Tankers are actively rerouting to avoid those strike zones, which, you know, instantly drives up freight costs.

SPEAKER_00 2:39

Okay, but hang on. If the U.S. is actively striking 80 targets, shouldn't a classic safe haven asset like gold be absolutely skyrocketing right now? People usually buy gold when things escalate.

SPEAKER_01 2:50

You would totally think so. But the tape tells a completely counterintuitive story. Gold actually fell 1.2%, uh dropping down to $4,077.

SPEAKER_00 2:58

Wait, it fell. Why would traders dump a safe haven asset the exact moment things actually escalate?

SPEAKER_01 3:04

Well, because the market is always looking forward. It's a textbook, buy the rumor, sell the news situation.

SPEAKER_00 3:08

Oh, I see.

SPEAKER_01 3:09

Institutional traders had already priced in the severe risk of these strikes weeks ago, right? Which pushed gold up initially. Once the headlines hit the wire and the strikes happened, the uncertainty evaporated.

SPEAKER_00 3:21

Uh, the event was realized.

SPEAKER_01 3:23

Exactly. The risk was already baked in, so traders instantly started taking profits and unwinding those long positions.

SPEAKER_00 3:30

That is fascinating. But, you know, while everyone is losing their minds over the Middle East and the Fed, some markets are just ignoring the macro chaos entirely. Like look at Cocoa.

SPEAKER_01 3:42

Oh, cocoa is behaving like it exists on a totally different planet. It is up 50% just this month, hitting $5,877 a ton.

SPEAKER_00 3:51

And that has absolutely nothing to do with the Fed or the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_01 3:54

Zero. The catalyst is entirely hyperlocal. We're seeing brutal weather patterns in West Africa that are just devastating crop yields. Right. And that's compounded by severe localized port congestion. Ships simply cannot get loaded fast enough, so it's this massive physical supply squeeze.

SPEAKER_00 4:10

And meanwhile, looking over at foreign exchange, the yen is sitting near a 40-year week level, hovering around 162. So the geopolitical chaos isn't triggering any sort of flight to safety into the yen either.

SPEAKER_01 4:23

No, not at all. And I think for you listening, today's tape is really a masterclass in market compartmentalization.

SPEAKER_00 4:29

Yeah, you have to juggle so much.

SPEAKER_01 4:31

You do. You might be gearing up for the upcoming July WASTE agricultural report, but as Coco shows, you have to watch hyperlocal weather while simultaneously monitoring these massive geopolitical shifts.

SPEAKER_00 4:43

Which brings us to a final regulatory note before we wrap. Trading futures. Options on futures and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may link all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_01 5:12

And a huge thank you to Eli Levy and Canon Trading Company for this incredibly detailed briefing. If you want to reach out to Eli, you can email him at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 5:22

Definitely check that out. Which leaves us with one final thought to mull over. If intense geopolitical strikes and surprisingly hawkish Fed minutes are now just the priced in baseline for assets like gold, what unseen catalyst is it actually going to take to truly shock the safe haven markets next?