SPEAKER_01 0:00

Imagine driving on like the world's most critical five-lane highway. And uh suddenly, without warning, four lanes are just entirely barricaded, complete gridlock.

SPEAKER_00 0:10

Yeah, that's a total nightmare scenario.

SPEAKER_01 0:12

Right. Well, that scale of disruption is exactly what we are looking at in global markets today. So welcome to the deep dive. Today we're unpacking a July 14th, 2026 pre-market briefing by Eli Levy of Canon Trading Company. You can actually reach the author directly at Eli at Canon Trading.com.

SPEAKER_00 0:29

Yep, it's a great brief.

SPEAKER_01 0:31

It really is. Our mission today is to you know deco these rapidly interconnected market shocks for you. And we are looking squarely at the Strait of Hormuz. There's a renewed flare-up with Iran, uh, missile strikes on tankers, and a casualty on a UAE vessel.

SPEAKER_00 0:45

Which is just awful.

SPEAKER_01 0:46

Yeah. Because of this, daily vessel traffic just plummeted from about twenty-two ships down to like a mere six.

SPEAKER_00 0:52

Wow, just six.

SPEAKER_01 0:54

Just six. And I'm partially noting the policy layer here. President Trump posted on social media demanding a 20% cargo reimbursement. But uh, before we get into the mechanics of what that means for your portfolio, we have a vital regulatory note to cover.

SPEAKER_00 1:08

Right. Let me read that really quickly. Disclaimer: Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Aaron Powell Okay.

SPEAKER_01 1:38

Thanks for that. So looking at that 20% reimbursement demand, how did that actually mechanically price in? Does it act like an instant tariff?

SPEAKER_00 1:47

Well, it basically functions like an immediate freight tax. You know, forwarders have to instantly price that 20 percent into their shipping premiums.

SPEAKER_01 1:54

Which cascades right of the buyer, I assume.

unknown 1:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:56

Right, exactly. It cascades right into the end user cost. And the market reaction was, I mean, it was violent. Brent crude surged right toward the $83 ban.

SPEAKER_01 2:06

And 83.

SPEAKER_00 2:07

Yeah. And the real tragedy here is the timing, because the International Energy Agency recently reported a 4.1 million barrel per day recovery in global supply. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_01 2:18

Oh, right. I remember seeing that report.

SPEAKER_00 2:20

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Yeah. So this geopolitical bottleneck essentially suffocates that exact recovery. The cushion the market was relying on is just gone.

SPEAKER_01 2:27

Aaron Ross Powell That's wild. But wait, looking at the broader economy, isn't the Fed historically inclined to, you know, look past temporary supply shock inflation? Why are futures suddenly pricing in a live July Fed rate hike? I mean, odds jumped 50% in a single week.

SPEAKER_00 2:42

Aaron Powell Because in a hypersensitive environment, energy costs bleed into core inflation way too quickly to ignore.

SPEAKER_01 2:48

Aaron Powell Oh, so they can't just pretend it's temporary.

SPEAKER_00 2:50

Exactly. The market is calling their bluff and forcing the Fed's hand. And uh this direct volatility across oil and rates is exactly why major bank earnings dropping today are so critical to watch.

SPEAKER_01 3:02

Aaron Powell You mean names like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, City.

SPEAKER_00 3:05

Yeah, those exact ones. Their trading desks generate massive revenue swings based on this exact kind of yield curve and commodity volatility. Their forward guidance today will basically tell us how much systemic pain they see coming.

SPEAKER_01 3:19

Wow. Speaking of volatility, the divergence on the metals tape today is just wild. Gold is testing $4,000, which, you know, completely makes sense as a geopolitical haven.

SPEAKER_00 3:29

Oh, absolutely. Classic safety trade.

SPEAKER_01 3:31

Right. But silver actually dropped 1.67%. If conditions are tightening across the board, why is silver being punished while gold thrives?

SPEAKER_00 3:40

Well, it really comes down to silver's dual identity. Like, yes, it is a precious metal, but it is heavily reliant on industrial demand.

SPEAKER_01 3:47

Okay, so it's tied to manufacturing.

SPEAKER_00 3:49

Exactly. When a massive oil shock threatens to slow down global manufacturing and the Fed is forced to hike rates, industrial metals take the hit. Gold catches the fear bid, but silver gets crushed by the looming economic slowdown.

SPEAKER_01 4:03

Aaron Ross Powell That makes perfect sense. So we have geopolitics causing structural tightening in energy and industrial metals. But I mean that tightening isn't just isolated to the Middle East, is it?

SPEAKER_00 4:12

Not at all. We are actually seeing structural tightening driven by the environment, too. The latest WASDA report.

SPEAKER_01 4:19

Wait, the USDA one?

SPEAKER_00 4:21

Yeah. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. That report shows that U.S. wheat is currently facing its smallest crop in over 50 years.

SPEAKER_01 4:29

Over 50 years. Wow.

SPEAKER_00 4:31

Yeah. So we basically have energy shortages colliding directly with food shortages. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_01 4:36

Geopolitics choking the oil supply and the weather choking the wheat supply. It's like a perfect storm.

SPEAKER_00 4:42

It really is. Which brings up a vital question for you to mull over today. Beyond oil and wheat, you really need to look at soft commodities.

SPEAKER_01 4:49

Soft commodities like what?

SPEAKER_00 4:51

Well, Coco just exhibited this violent squeeze and flush pattern. Algorithmic short covering artificially rocketed the price up to $5,360.

SPEAKER_01 5:01

But then I guess liquidity dried up.

SPEAKER_00 5:03

Exactly. Liquidity simply vanished, causing an instant brutal collapse. It really begs the question: what happens when pure panic hits an already tight illiquid market?

SPEAKER_01 5:13

Yeah. A squeeze and flush is a terrifying thing to watch on a chart. And it highlights just how fragile these interconnected markets are right now. Keep your eyes open out there. And before we close, disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off exchange, foreign currency transactions, and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.