SPEAKER_01 0:00

So picture trying to steer a boat, right? The wind is just howling in one direction, but uh there's this massive underwater current ripping the exact opposite way.

SPEAKER_00 0:10

Yeah, you're basically getting torn apart.

SPEAKER_01 0:12

Exactly. And that tension is well, it's the defining theme of today's deep dive. We're looking at the July 15th, 2026 pre-market briefing from Canon Trading Company.

SPEAKER_00 0:23

Right, authored by Eli Levy. And for everyone listening, you can actually reach him directly at Eli at CanonTrading.com if you want to dig deeper into his research.

SPEAKER_01 0:32

Yeah, but today we are unpacking his analysis of a market that is just caught in this massive tug of war. I mean, we've got cooling U.S. inflation pulling directly against a really sudden violent spike in global energy.

SPEAKER_00 0:45

It's wild. We're looking at a domestic economic victory just colliding head on with these geopolitical shockwaves. But uh before we get into the exact numbers, we do need to cover some required disclosures.

SPEAKER_01 0:55

Right, let's get that out of the way real quick. Disclaimer Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

SPEAKER_00 1:26

Okay, so getting back into it, the headline, June CPI dropped 0.4% month over month, and the 10-year treasury yield actually fell to 4.583%.

SPEAKER_01 1:36

Which sounds great on paper, right?

SPEAKER_00 1:38

It does. I mean, looking at FedWatch, the market is pricing in a near 80% chance the Fed holds rates on July 29th. A cool inflation print like this normally gives equities a big reason to celebrate. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_01 1:48

Yeah, but celebrating this specific data feels a lot like, I don't know, hitting a diet milestone while you're actively eating a whole cake.

SPEAKER_00 1:54

Yeah, that is a perfect way to put it.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

Aaron Powell Because, you know, that CPI decline was heavily driven by a 5.7 percent plunge in energy costs. And that is entirely backward looking.

SPEAKER_00 2:06

Right.

SPEAKER_01 2:06

Real-time oil prices are already surging today.

SPEAKER_00 2:09

Aaron Powell Yeah. The data essentially expire the moment it was printed. WTI and Brent Crude are up uh between 3 percent and 4.5 percent this morning, and this is strictly due to geopolitics.

SPEAKER_01 2:19

Aaron Ross Powell Wait, so what exactly is happening on the ground to cause that?

SPEAKER_00 2:23

Aaron Ross Powell Well, just impartially reporting the facts here. Washington resumed military strikes on Iran, and that effectively reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping. So transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_01 2:35

Trevor Burrus, Jr. Which is a massive global bottleneck.

SPEAKER_00 2:36

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Exactly. It's just no longer considered safe.

SPEAKER_01 2:38

Aaron Ross Powell Oh, wow. So that immediately explains why Goldman Sachs is aggressively raising their long-dated oil assumption, right, up to $76 a barrel.

SPEAKER_00 2:46

Aaron Ross Powell Yes. They're pricing in a structural security premium. You just can't rely on that oil flowing smoothly right now.

SPEAKER_01 2:52

Trevor Burrus And that clash, you know, energy versus inflation, it's turning the U.S. dollar into the ultimate swing variable.

SPEAKER_00 2:57

Aaron Powell Yeah, the dollar index eased down to 100.91 on the inflation news. And normally a weaker dollar is like a rising tide that lifts all commodity boats, making U.S. exports cheaper.

SPEAKER_01 3:07

Aaron Powell But if you look at the agricultural sector, that rising tide is getting completely overpowered by localized supply shocks. I mean, we're seeing this massive divergence in grains.

SPEAKER_00 3:17

You really are. USDA data just cut new crop-ending stocks for corn. When you shrink that safety buffer, you create a structural shortage. It makes corn incredibly bullish.

SPEAKER_01 3:27

But soybeans are facing the exact opposite reality.

SPEAKER_00 3:30

Right. The market has to digest this massive, bearish, 4.475 billion bushel production estimate. That supply glut is just way too heavy for the weaker dollar to lift.

SPEAKER_01 3:41

And you see a similar exhaustion in live cattle, too, which finally took a heavy hit after being, you know, severely overextended.

SPEAKER_00 3:47

Yeah, definitely.

SPEAKER_01 3:48

Okay, but this brings me to the metals data. Because usually a major conflict in the Middle East has traders just slamming the gold panic button. But gold is trading flat or even down today. Why is that?

SPEAKER_00 3:58

It's fascinating. The traditional geopolitical playbook is getting completely overridden by the macroeconomic data we just talked about.

SPEAKER_01 4:06

Wait, really? The macro data is outweighing a conflict?

SPEAKER_00 4:09

Yeah, those steadier treasury yields and the cooling dollar are actually dampening that whole Gold Haven reflex. Traders are looking past the immediate panic.

SPEAKER_01 4:17

So where is the money going, if not into a bunker?

SPEAKER_00 4:20

Straight into industrial utility. They're piling into silver and copper. Silver is jumping to late 2025 levels, and copper just pushed about $6.40s a pound.

SPEAKER_01 4:30

Oh, because of the strong industrial demand colliding with those reports of declining copper output from Chile.

SPEAKER_00 4:36

Spot on, it's a pure supply-demand squeeze on the industrial side.

SPEAKER_01 4:39

It really shows how a single backward-looking CPI print can paint a totally different picture from the real-time forces that are actually moving energy and industrial metals right now.

SPEAKER_00 4:50

It completely changes the landscape.

SPEAKER_01 4:51

Which leaves you, the listener, with this to ponder. If this geopolitical oil spike effectively cancels out the recent inflation cooling, how quickly will the market's current optimism about a Fed rate pause just evaporate?

SPEAKER_00 5:04

Disclaimer. Trading futures, options on futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions and other financial instruments involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.